MARKET RESEARCH HUB

MACRO & MARKET RESEARCH

Find here all the latest publications from our expert Macro & Market Research team:

THE MACRO & MARKET RESEARCH TEAM

A team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial markets.

The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.

MACRO VIEW VIDEO – 03 June 2020

 

with Vincent Chaigneau, Head of Research at Generali Insurance Asset Management

Market Perspectives and Investment View

OUTLOOK 2021 - REPAIR AND DESPAIR
2021 will see a ‘repair’ of the deep Covid-19 damages, with the economy set to rebound strongly as society normalises into summer. But there is much to despair about. Potential growth will be lower out of this crisis. Employment will recover more slowly and Covid has fanned inequalities. Investors can also lament about the fall of future investment returns.
A (TEMPORARY) COVID ‘LEG DOWN’
The rise in new Covid-19 cases and renewed lockdowns across Europe are casting long shadows over the economic recovery and markets. Yet much more targeted restrictions, a strong Chinese rebound and continued massive fiscal and monetary policy support will keep the second wave’s impact far more muted than in spring.
Cov-ideologies
After the rescue. As we enter the 20H2, Covid-19 is still lurking around, and influ-encing our social and economic behaviours. The number of new daily cases globally is at a new high. Partly, this reflects more intensive testing. The latter now captures a broader and younger population.
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Core Matters

LIFE AFTER COVID: 5-YEAR TOTAL RETURN FORECASTS
The Global Covid Crisis (GCC) has had a profound impact not just on our lives but also the economy and financial markets. Even after those life-changing developments and sharp market movements, our 5-year total return forecasts have not changed dramatically. We reiterate the view that future returns will fall very short of historical ones, particularly those of the past ten years.
LIFE AFTER COVID:
THE LDI VIEW
In this paper our Research and Investment teams analyse “Life after Covid“, covering our view on the economic recovery, new behaviours in the aftermath of the pandemic and the unique opportunities for a European fiscal and political integration.
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Focal Points

State-aid framework under Covid: what impact on credit markets?
State-aid framework under Covid: what impact on credit markets?
Focal Point: German CC ruling: How much pain for the ECB?
The German Constitutional Court (CC) judged the ECB’s Public Sector Purchase Program (PSPP) as partly unlawful as the German parliament did not demand a justification of it by the ECB but also ruled that it was no state financing.
Spain: Headwinds ahead but Bonos to stay solid
In Spain, the new, fragile left-wing minority coalition plans to unwind key elements of the 2012 labor market reforms and intends to increase income and corporate taxes.
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Market commentaries

US: Fiscal stimulus to boost GDP growth to 5.5% in 2021
The thin majority in the Senate will allow the incoming administration to deliver quickly a sizeable fiscal stimulus. We expect a package worth around US$ 800bn (on top of the US$ 900bn already agreed on in December), centred on the strengthening of direct income support to households, extended unemployment benefit and aid to local governments.
Last minute Brexit deal merely avoids the worst
A last-minute deal avoids falling back to WTO rules: After intense and painful negotiations, the UK and the EU finally agreed on Christmas eve on a Trade and Cooperation agreement. This prevented both sides to fallback to WTO rules.
CHINA’S GDP SURPRISED ON THE UPSIDE BUT DEMAND STAYED RATHER WEAK
China’s GDP rose by 3.2% yoy in Q2, after a Covid-19 related drop by 6.8% in Q1, according to data published by China’s statistical office this morning.
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Market Compass

Market Compass November 2020
Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team. The team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.
Market Compass June 2020
Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team. The team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.
Marktkompass April 2020
Herausgegeben vom Macro & Market Research Team. Ein Team von 13 Analysten mit Sitz in Paris, Köln, Triest, Mailand und Prag analysiert qualitativ und quantitativ makroökonomische und finanzielle Fragen.
Das Team überträgt makroökonomische und quantitative Ausblicke in Anlageideen, die in den Anlageprozess einfließen.
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Macro view videos and podcasts

THE SPOTLIGHT - GENERALI INVESTMENTS PODCAST
Q4 INVESTMENTS VIEW | THE NEW AGE OF FINANCIAL REPRESSION
Listen to the dedicated Podcast by Vincent Chaigneau, Head of Research, on the executive summary of the latest Investment View Report released by our Research team.
Generali Investments among preferred asset managers brands in Europe
Listen to the dedicated Podcast by Vincent Chaigneau, Head of Research, on our view on the economic recovery, new behaviours in the aftermath of the pandemic and the unique opportunities for a European fiscal and political integration.
PODCAST:
LIFE AFTER COVID -
THE LDI VIEW
Listen to the dedicated Podcast by Vincent Chaigneau, Head of Research, on our view on the economic recovery, new behaviours in the aftermath of the pandemic and the unique opportunities for a European fiscal and political integration.
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