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MACRO & MARKET RESEARCH

Find here all the latest publications from our expert Macro & Market Research team:

THE MACRO & MARKET RESEARCH TEAM

A team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial markets.

The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.

MACRO VIEW VIDEO – 03 June 2020

 

with Vincent Chaigneau, Head of Research at Generali Insurance Asset Management

Market Perspectives and Investment View

Investment View Q2-2021 ǀ Some like it hot
On the ground it does not feel like it just yet, as Europe battles with a third wave of infections, but markets are fast proceeding to the Covid crisis exit door. Too fast?
A (temporary) Covid ‘leg down’
The rise in new Covid-19 cases and renewed lockdowns across Europe are casting long shadows over the economic recovery and markets. Yet much more targeted restrictions, a strong Chinese rebound and continued massive fiscal and monetary policy support will keep the second wave’s impact far more muted than in spring.
Cov-ideologies
After the rescue. As we enter the 20H2, Covid-19 is still lurking around, and influ-encing our social and economic behaviours. The number of new daily cases globally is at a new high. Partly, this reflects more intensive testing. The latter now captures a broader and younger population.
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Core Matters

Inequality: Causes, policy response and market implications
Over the last decade, since the end of the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), more and more adverse “side effects” of previously hailed economic, technological and political “megatrends” have come to the fore.
Life after Covid: 5-year total return forecasts
The Global Covid Crisis (GCC) has had a profound impact not just on our lives but also the economy and financial markets. Even after those life-changing developments and sharp market movements, our 5-year total return forecasts have not changed dramatically. We reiterate the view that future returns will fall very short of historical ones, particularly those of the past ten years.
Life after Covid: 5-year total return forecasts
The Global Covid Crisis (GCC) has had a profound impact not just on our lives but also the economy and financial markets. Even after those life-changing developments and sharp market movements, our 5-year total return forecasts have not changed dramatically. We reiterate the view that future returns will fall very short of historical ones, particularly those of the past ten years.
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Focal Points

Inflation expectations remain anchored
The spike in long-term interest rates has been to a large extent driven by fears that the combination of a large fiscal US stimulus and ongoing money printing will trigger a permanent increase in inflation.
Euro area inflation: recovering, not exploding
Inflation is back on the radar sceen. Following a decade of persistently low inflation in the advanced economies, markets have now started to flirt with the idea that the lowflation environment will be overcome.
Vaccines to trigger uneven recoveries from Covid
The Covid-19 pandemic keeps its tight grip on economic activity. After the arrival of vaccines in late 2020 had sparked increased optimism about the speed of the recovery, latest news has somewhat soured the mood.
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Market commentaries

US job creation disappoints in April, adding to the Fed’s case for patience
The April employment report poured some cold water on hopes of a strong acceleration in the recovery. The US economy created 266k jobs, much below the 900k+ consensus estimates.
COVID-19 UPDATE Facts & Figures
India reported a new record in daily cases with more than 400,000 new infections. The US has backed a proposal that would temporarily lift intellectual property rights for Covid-19 vaccines. The WHO said Sinovac Biotech’s vaccine is effective in adults under 60 but some quality data on the risk of serious adverse effects is still lacking.
The Fed sees an improved outlook but does not change course
The April meeting had few surprises. The Fed marked to market its view of the economy in line with better data on vaccination and activity. The evolution remains in line with its forecast and therefore does not require any policy changes, as widely expected.
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Market Compass

Marktkompass April 2021
Herausgegeben vom Macro & Market Research Team. Ein Team von Analysten mit Sitz in Paris, Köln, Triest, Mailand und Prag analysiert qualitativ und quantitativ makroökonomische und finanzielle Fragen. Das Team überträgt makroökonomische und quantitative Ausblicke in Anlageideen, die in den Anlageprozess einfließen.
Market Compass March 2021
Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team. The team of analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues.

The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.
Market Compass November 2020
Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team. The team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.
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Macro view videos and podcasts

The Spotlight ǀ Generali Investments Podcast: Some like it hot
Our April Podcast Interview with Vincent Chaigneau, Head of Research at Generali Investments
The Spotlight - Generali Investments Podcast
Q4 Investments View | The New Age Of Financial Repression
Listen to the dedicated Podcast by Vincent Chaigneau, Head of Research, on the executive summary of the latest Investment View Report released by our Research team.
Generali Investments among preferred asset managers brands in Europe
Listen to the dedicated Podcast by Vincent Chaigneau, Head of Research, on our view on the economic recovery, new behaviours in the aftermath of the pandemic and the unique opportunities for a European fiscal and political integration.
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