US job creation gathers speed, bottlenecks increase wage pressures

In Kürze

Employment grew strongly in June, but the data continue to highlight the bottlenecks which can add to wage pressures. Nonfarm payrolls grew by 850k after having expanded by 570k on average in the previous two months.

Highlights:

  • In June, employment growth was above expectations (850k versus 700k) and accelerated from the previous two months. Government employment (+188k) played a big role and sectors whose activity is reopening continued to perform very well. But input shortages curtailed employment growth in automotive.
  • Yet, the participation rate remained unchanged at a very low reading of 61.6%. Labour shortages are affecting hiring intentions: the employment component of the ISM manufacturing index came in below 50, showing that smooth job growth cannot be taken for granted.
  • Hourly wage growth rose to 3.6% yoy, with leisure posting a +10% increase. Upside pressures on inflation coming from wages may lead the Fed to a quicker withdrawal of monetary stimulus, implying the risk of a first rate hike earlier than in mid-2023. However, doves may insist to keep accommodation with clear evidence that the constraints pushing up inflation are at the same time hampering activity and employment growth.

Download the full publication below

US job creation gathers speed, bottlenecks increase wage pressures
PDF
Picture

© Generali Investments, alle Rechte vorbehalten. Diese Website wird von der Generali Investments Holding S.p.A. als Holdinggesellschaft der wichtigsten Vermögensverwaltungsgesellschaften der Generali Gruppe zur Verfügung gestellt, die direkt oder indirekt die Mehrheitsbeteiligung an den unten aufgeführten Gesellschaften hält (im Folgenden gemeinsam "Generali Investments"). Diese Website kann Informationen über die Tätigkeit der folgenden Gesellschaften enthalten: Generali Asset Management S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Infranity, Sycomore Asset Management, Aperture Investors LLC (einschließlich Aperture Investors UK Ltd), Plenisfer Investments S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Lumyna Investments Limited, Sosteneo S. p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Generali Real Estate S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Conning* und unter deren Tochtergesellschaften Global Evolution Asset Management A/S - einschließlich Global Evolution USA, LLC und Global Evolution Fund Management Singapore Pte. Ltd - Octagon Credit Investors, LLC, Pearlmark Real Estate, LLC sowie Generali Investments CEE. *Einschließlich Conning, Inc, Conning Asset Management Limited, Conning Asia Pacific Limited, Conning Investment Products, Inc, Goodwin Capital Advisers, Inc. (zusammen "Conning").