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The Fed is more confident on the recovery and brings forward to 2023 the first hike

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The Fed has grown more confident in the positive signals the economy is providing and in a surprising move, brough forward to 2023 the date of the lift-off and foreseeing two rate hikes in that year. This increased confidence was visible in the tone of the press release.

Highlights:

  • The Fed is projecting a faster return to normality, and therefore monetary normalisation could be speeded up; two hikes in 2023, bringing the Fed funds rate to 0.625%, are now deem appropriate.
  • Growth projections for 2021 were marked up, and expected inflation was raised. However, the medium-term forecasts remain broadly unchanged with respect to March. The spike in inflation is considered transitory.
  • The FOMC started talking about talking about tapering. No timeframe was hinted at but we expect an announcement by the September meeting.
  • The surprise move lifted bond yields, especially at the short end of the curve and caused the S&P500 to lose 0.6% on the announcement.

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The Fed is more confident on the recovery and brings forward to 2023 the first hike
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