European Elections: more fragmentation and a thinner pro-EU majority

In Kürze

The 2024 European election strongly impacts on composition EU policies over the coming five years. Later in the year (likely in September) a new European Commission (EC) will be installed and thereafter (probably in December) a new President for the European Council will be chosen. In what follows we take a deeper look at the June 6 to 9 election outcomes.


  • The June 6-9 European Election resulted in a more fragmented parliament (EP): The share of Eurosceptics (ECR and ID) and independents (NI) rose, largely at the expense of the Euro-friendly coalition (EPP, S&D, Renew). Also the Greens lost heavily. Still, the centre coalition maintains a narrow majority of seats (55% from 59% before).
  • Notwithstanding the EU-friendly coalition, the gain of the Eurosceptics might slow down or even prevent integration in important areas like banking union. It may further dampen climate ambitions. The discussion over the composition of the new Commission and the choice of the President may take longer than usual.
  • A more nationalistic tilt will also weigh on the negotiation of the next (2028-34) EU budget and the execution of the new Stability Pact. Deeper debt mutualisation and increase in EU direct funding to e.g. finance climate transition or defence spending may prove even more difficult. 
  • The results unexpectedly triggered a snap parliamentary election in France. A full extreme-right majority looks unlikely, but President Macron may find it difficult to gather the grand coalition he is dreaming of. The risk of stalemate is large. . In Germany PM Scholz’s SPD party lost severely, raising the risk of a coalition breakup and snap elections in the not-so-distant future. 
  • The Euro lost against the dollar, and European equities (especially French banks) suffered. Medium term, indirect effects from the 2024 election related to fiscal governance could impact government bond markets, as hopes for a follow-up to the NGEU bond experience will waver.

Download the full publication below

European Elections: more fragmentation and a thinner pro-EU majority

© Generali Investments, alle Rechte vorbehalten. Diese Website wird von der Generali Investments Holding S.p.A. als Holdinggesellschaft der wichtigsten Vermögensverwaltungsgesellschaften der Generali Gruppe zur Verfügung gestellt, die direkt oder indirekt die Mehrheitsbeteiligung an den unten aufgeführten Gesellschaften hält (im Folgenden gemeinsam "Generali Investments"). Diese Website kann Informationen über die Tätigkeit der folgenden Gesellschaften enthalten: Generali Asset Management S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Infranity, Sycomore Asset Management, Aperture Investors LLC (einschließlich Aperture Investors UK Ltd), Plenisfer Investments S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Lumyna Investments Limited, Sosteneo S. p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Generali Real Estate S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Conning* und unter deren Tochtergesellschaften Global Evolution Asset Management A/S - einschließlich Global Evolution USA, LLC und Global Evolution Fund Management Singapore Pte. Ltd - Octagon Credit Investors, LLC, Pearlmark Real Estate, LLC sowie Generali Investments CEE. *Einschließlich Conning, Inc, Conning Asset Management Limited, Conning Asia Pacific Limited, Conning Investment Products, Inc, Goodwin Capital Advisers, Inc. (zusammen "Conning").