2024 budget deficits to keep euro area bond issuance close to record high

In Kürze

The fundamentals of the government bond market have changed significantly in recent years. With the ECB having shifted from Quantitative Easing (QE) to Quantitative Tightening (QT), and debt ratios as well as budget deficits still elevated by the pandemic-related and energy-price-induced expenditures, the scarcity of government bonds has come to an end.

Highlights:

  • In 2024, European economies are set to start consolidation as the suspension of the Stability and Growth Pact comes to an end. Given the European Commission’s forecast of an average euro area deficit of -2.8% of GDP in 2024, the supply of government bonds will remain ample.
  • We expect the ECB to start PEPP non-reinvestments at a moderate pace in 2024, still absorbing € 120bn out of an estimated € 180bn. A more aggressive QT could lead to a more substantial lack of demand.
  • Gross issuance of government bonds will remain at a sky-high level of around € 1275bn in 2024, as a moderately declining net issuance is balanced by higher redemptions. Moreover, the net-net issuance will even increase again (€ 680bn vs. € 640bn) as a higher volume of Quantitative Tightening is expected.
  • Additionally, the EU will moderately increase its net issuance volume in 2024. As a result, the technical situation will remain tight next year, preventing yields from falling significantly.
     

Download the full publication below

2024 budget deficits to keep euro area bond issuance close to record high
Picture

© Generali Investments, alle Rechte vorbehalten. Diese Website wird von der Generali Investments Holding S.p.A. als Holdinggesellschaft der wichtigsten Vermögensverwaltungsgesellschaften der Generali Gruppe zur Verfügung gestellt, die direkt oder indirekt die Mehrheitsbeteiligung an den unten aufgeführten Gesellschaften hält (im Folgenden gemeinsam "Generali Investments"). Diese Website kann Informationen über die Tätigkeit der folgenden Gesellschaften enthalten: Generali Asset Management S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Infranity, Sycomore Asset Management, Aperture Investors LLC (einschließlich Aperture Investors UK Ltd), Plenisfer Investments S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Lumyna Investments Limited, Sosteneo S. p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Generali Real Estate S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Conning* und unter deren Tochtergesellschaften Global Evolution Asset Management A/S - einschließlich Global Evolution USA, LLC und Global Evolution Fund Management Singapore Pte. Ltd - Octagon Credit Investors, LLC, Pearlmark Real Estate, LLC sowie Generali Investments CEE. *Einschließlich Conning, Inc, Conning Asset Management Limited, Conning Asia Pacific Limited, Conning Investment Products, Inc, Goodwin Capital Advisers, Inc. (zusammen "Conning").