28. Juni 2024

Investment View: Goldilocks vs. Gridlocks

In Kürze

Steady as she goes. Despite a poor start to Q2, global markets are closing the first half in decent shape. President Macron has just thrown a curveball, however, with the unexpected dissolution of parliament, fanning political uncertainty and erasing quar terly gains for European equities.

Highlights:

The economic story of moderate growth and disinflation smells of Goldilocks, but the politics of gridlocks. A Trump victory would fan international trade tensions, while political troubles in Europe are not limited to just France.
The global recovery appears slightly more entrenched, if still moderate. We are confident that inflation normalisation is proceeding again, making rate cuts more likely.
Political developments often support thematic financial trends, e.g. our long-standing preference for IG Credit over Govies. But we try to avoid falling into the excessive influence of political crises, often the cause of temporary spikes. The French election may be a buying opportunity for OATs, unless a fully split parliament causes stalemate and makes fiscal consolidation impossible.
Until the political fog lifts, we keep our equity overweight (OW) minimal, and High Yield and Financial credit neutral. We stay long non-financial IG Credit. We like to play the range in rates, still with a long duration bias. EM markets offer good diversification benefit (both in equities and HC credit), despite near-term dollar strength.

Download the full publication below

Investment View: Goldilocks vs. Gridlocks

28. Juni 2024

© Generali Investments, alle Rechte vorbehalten. Diese Website wird von der Generali Investments Holding S.p.A. als Holdinggesellschaft der wichtigsten Vermögensverwaltungsgesellschaften der Generali Gruppe zur Verfügung gestellt, die direkt oder indirekt die Mehrheitsbeteiligung an den unten aufgeführten Gesellschaften hält (im Folgenden gemeinsam "Generali Investments"). Diese Website kann Informationen über die Tätigkeit der folgenden Gesellschaften enthalten: Generali Asset Management S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Infranity, Sycomore Asset Management, Aperture Investors LLC (einschließlich Aperture Investors UK Ltd), Plenisfer Investments S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Lumyna Investments Limited, Sosteneo S. p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Generali Real Estate S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Conning* und unter deren Tochtergesellschaften Global Evolution Asset Management A/S - einschließlich Global Evolution USA, LLC und Global Evolution Fund Management Singapore Pte. Ltd - Octagon Credit Investors, LLC, Pearlmark Real Estate, LLC sowie Generali Investments CEE. *Einschließlich Conning, Inc, Conning Asset Management Limited, Conning Asia Pacific Limited, Conning Investment Products, Inc, Goodwin Capital Advisers, Inc. (zusammen "Conning").

Rechtliche Hinweise

Cookie-Richtlinie

Datenschutzrichtlinie