Tricky last mile(s)

In Kürze

Solid US growth, a decent earnings season and softer inflation measures are keeping global risk sentiment underpinned, with equities advancing in July. Yet the exceptional resilience of the US economy raises questions about whether inflation can quickly return to target.

Highlights:

 

  • Fresh US soft landing hopes have kept risk appetite underpinned, with central banks approaching peak rates and US disinflation on track.
  • Yet we sense rising market complacency. The last mile(s) towards inflation targets may indeed prove the trickiest. Either the US economy finally slows, or the Fed will need to bite further. The expansive US fiscal policy makes the job harder.
  • With valuations stretched and investors having re-built risk positions, a setback seems likely. We keep  prudent underweights in Equities and HY Credit, but like the carry in IG Credit and EM debt.
  • Yields are geared to the downside, if only moderately so. USD weakness is unfinished, but we tactically turn more prudent on EUR/USD.  
     

Read the full publication below

Tricky last miles
Picture

© Generali Investments, alle Rechte vorbehalten. Diese Webseite wird von Generali Investments zur Verfügung gestellt und gilt als Marketingkommunikation und Finanzwerbung in Bezug auf die Produkte und Dienstleistungen der folgenden Unternehmen der Generali Gruppe: Generali Asset Management S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio und Generali Investments Luxembourg S.A (im Folgenden zusammengefasst Generali Investments). Darüber hinaus kann die Webseite Marketingkommunikation und Finanzwerbung für Produkte und Dienstleistungen von Unternehmen enthalten, die Teil der von Generali Investments Partners S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio koordinierten Plattform sind, insbesondere von Infranity, Sycomore Asset Management, Aperture Investors LLC, Plenisfer Investments SGR, Lumyna Investments, Sosteneo Infrastructure Partners SGR und Generali Real Estate S.p.A. Società di Gestione del Risparmio.