Cookie settings
Picture
Kontakt
Picture

Assessing the risks from the French snap elections

In Kürze

France unexpectedly goes to the ballots: In last weekend’s European elections the right-wing National Rally (RN) party of Marine Le Pen emerged as the winner with 31.4% of the votes, about twice as much votes as President Macron’s Renaissance party (14.6%). In a surprise decision, Macron dissolved the Parliament for snap elections on June 30 (1st round) and July 7 (2nd round). The most similar issolution, since the launch of the 5th Republic in 1958, is Jacques Chirac’s one in 1997; it was also seen as a tactical manoeuvre, which ended badly with the President losing his large majority in Parliament.

Highlights:

  • President Macron has unexpectedly called for a snap election. The voting system – different from that of the European elections – makes predictions difficult, but it looks like this may backfire, like it did for President Chirac in 1997. 
  • A lack of majority (stalemate) or a RN-led government appear to be the most likely scenarios. We discuss those, as well as four alternatives. 
  • Key market focus will be on fiscal risks. Reassuringly, Le Pen’s ultimate target is to win the 2027 Presidential election, and she will be keen to avoid a repeat of the Salvini and Truss fiscal and market crises. Investors will also fret about the risks of a much slower pace of European integration and waving support for Ukraine. 
  • In a highly fluid and uncertain environment, market concerns may grow into the first round on 30 June. 

Download the full publication below

Assessing the risks from the French snap elections
Unsere Fonds
Nachhaltiges Investieren
News & Einblicke
Über Uns
Kontakt
Picture
Picture

© Generali Investments, alle Rechte vorbehalten. Diese Website wird von der Generali Investments Holding S.p.A. als Holdinggesellschaft der wichtigsten Vermögensverwaltungsgesellschaften der Generali Gruppe zur Verfügung gestellt, die direkt oder indirekt die Mehrheitsbeteiligung an den unten aufgeführten Gesellschaften hält (im Folgenden gemeinsam "Generali Investments"). Diese Website kann Informationen über die Tätigkeit der folgenden Gesellschaften enthalten: Generali Asset Management S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Infranity, Sycomore Asset Management, Aperture Investors LLC (einschließlich Aperture Investors UK Ltd), Plenisfer Investments S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Lumyna Investments Limited, Sosteneo S. p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Generali Real Estate S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Conning* und unter deren Tochtergesellschaften Global Evolution Asset Management A/S - einschließlich Global Evolution USA, LLC und Global Evolution Fund Management Singapore Pte. Ltd - Octagon Credit Investors, LLC, Pearlmark Real Estate, LLC sowie Generali Investments CEE. *Einschließlich Conning, Inc, Conning Asset Management Limited, Conning Asia Pacific Limited, Conning Investment Products, Inc, Goodwin Capital Advisers, Inc. (zusammen "Conning").

Rechtliche Hinweise
Cookie-Richtlinie
Datenschutzrichtlinie
Geschäftsbedingungen
Urheberrechtsschutz
MiFid
Glossar