Alpha in Zeiten hoher Unsicherheit: Warum Liquid Alternatives heute besonders überzeugen

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Alexandre Casin

Managing Director bei Lumyna Investments, Teil von Generali Investments.

Angesichts steigender Zinsen, anhaltender Inflationsrisiken und ungleichmäßigen Wachstums, die die Märkte neu gestalten, beweisen liquide alternative Anlagen ihren Wert sowohl als Diversifikationsinstrumente als auch als Renditetreiber. Da die Streuung zunimmt und die Tendenz sich abschwächt, wenden sich Anleger zunehmend Makro-, Relative-Value- und aktiven Kreditstrategien zu, um Chancen in einem komplexeren Umfeld zu nutzen, erklärt Alexandre Casin.

Zuverlässige Diversifizierung in unsicheren Märkten

Unserer Ansicht nach haben sich liquide alternative Anlagen in den jüngsten Volatilitätsphasen des Jahres 2026 als zuverlässige Diversifikatoren erwiesen. Auf der gesamten Alternativplattform von Lumyna entwickelten sich Makrostrategien relativ flach, Long/Short-Fonds reduzierten das Abwärtsrisiko deutlich, und Multi-Strategie-Fonds blieben ebenfalls weitgehend stabil.

Dies steht im Gegensatz zum Gesamtmarkt, wo diskretionäre Strategien, insbesondere diskretionäre Makrostrategien, sehr unterschiedliche Ergebnisse hervorgebracht haben, mit einigen sehr starken und anderen deutlich schwächeren Wertentwicklungen.

In einem Umfeld, in dem Aktien, Rohstoffe, Anleihen und Kredite alle volatile Wertentwicklungen verzeichneten, können flache Renditen auf eine starke Diversifizierung und ein effektives Risikomanagement hindeuten.

Mit Blick auf die Zukunft sind diese Strategien weiterhin gut positioniert, um für den Rest des Jahres 2026 und darüber hinaus eine gute Performance zu erzielen. Makro-Chancen nehmen in den Bereichen Devisen, Anleihe-Dislokationen und Kurvendynamik zu. Long/Short-Strategien haben das Abwärtsrisiko abgesichert und sind nun so positioniert, dass sie von Sektorrotationen und der Aktienauswahl profitieren können. Multi-Strategie-Ansätze dürften Chancen in Bereichen wie Wandelanleihen, Sondersituationen, Kapitalstruktur- und Volatilitätsarbitrage sowie anderen Relative-Value-Trades nutzen.

Lumyna Investments bietet auf seiner Plattform Zugang zu einer breiten Palette dieser Strategien mit hochqualifizierten Managern: gestützt auf Expertise in Hedgefonds und semi-liquiden privaten Märkten, die Anlegern hilft, den traditionellen Zielkonflikt zwischen Performance und Liquidität zu überwinden.

Eine strukturelle Allokation mit taktischen Vorteilen

Liquide alternative Anlagen bleiben sowohl als struktureller Bestandteil von Portfolios als auch als taktische Allokation im aktuellen Umfeld attraktiv. Angesichts des anhaltenden Rückgangs des traditionellen 60:40-Modells sind wir der Ansicht, dass Anleger heute eine diversifizierte Allokation von etwa 20–25 % in alternative Anlagen in ihren Portfolios in Betracht ziehen sollten. Dies wird durch wissenschaftliche Untersuchungen des National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) gestützt.1

Bestimmte positive Impulse im makroökonomischen Umfeld stützen unsere Überzeugung weiterhin. Das vergangene Jahrzehnt mit niedrigen Zinsen und hohen Korrelationen führte zu einem sogenannten „Hedgefonds-Winter“ mit begrenzter Alpha-Generierung. Dies hat sich nun gewandelt, und die letzten zwei Jahre haben bereits eine verbesserte Performance gezeigt; wir betrachten dies als den Beginn des „Hedgefonds-Frühlings“.

Auch aus taktischer Sicht sind die Chancen ebenso überzeugend. Die sektorale Streuung ist in den Bereichen Energie, Industrie, Banken, Handel und Konsumgüter hoch, was eine gezielte Positionierung ermöglicht. Gleichzeitig haben die jüngste Ausweitung der Spreads und die Marktspannungen attraktive Einstiegspunkte geschaffen. Infolgedessen bieten liquide alternative Anlagen sowohl langfristige Portfoliovorteile als auch kurzfristige Chancen.

Positionierung angesichts makroökonomischer Unsicherheiten

Innerhalb des Universums der liquiden alternativen Anlagen sind Makrostrategien nach wie vor besonders gut positioniert, um die derzeitige Unsicherheit zu meistern. Ein Beispiel hierfür ist die Lumyna Bridgewater Absolute Return Fixed Income UCITS-Strategie (ARFI).

Die Strategie bietet Zugang zu Bridgewaters bemerkenswerter, über 35-jähriger Erfolgsbilanz im aktiven Management sowie zu seinem bewährten fundamentalen, systematischen und diversifizierten Alpha-Anlageprozess und ist derzeit das einzige UCITS-Vehikel, über das man Zugang zu Bridgewaters Alpha erhält.

Das Ziel der ARFI-Strategie ist es, hohe, stabile und unkorrelierte Cash-Plus-Renditen zu erzielen, unabhängig davon, ob Zinsen und Spreads steigen oder fallen, was wir im aktuellen Umfeld als seltenes und attraktives Profil ansehen. Dies soll durch die Anwendung des fundamentalen und systematischen Ansatzes von Bridgewater erreicht werden, um Fehlbewertungen in einem diversifizierten Anlagespektrum von über hundert liquiden globalen Renten- und Devisenmärkten zu identifizieren und zu nutzen.

Mit einem attraktiven Renditeprofil, einschließlich geringer Korrelation und robustem Risikomanagement bei täglicher Liquidität, kann ARFI eine wirkungsvolle Allokation sein, um die Portfoliorendite zu steigern und zu stabilisieren.2

Aktive Kredit- und Relative-Value-Strategien gewinnen an Aufmerksamkeit

Die Nachfrage der Anleger ist derzeit bei Makrostrategien am stärksten, insbesondere bei solchen, die definierte Renditen über dem Geldmarktniveau bieten. Da erhebliche Unsicherheit hinsichtlich der Marktrichtung herrscht, verfolgen Anleger einen vorsichtigeren Ansatz bei der Vermögensallokation.

Relative-Value-Strategien stoßen nun jedoch auf zunehmendes Interesse, insbesondere angesichts der sich stabilisierenden Märkte. Aktive Kreditstrategien gewinnen besonders stark an Dynamik, vor allem Long/Short-Relative-Value-Ansätze mit Absicherung gegen Kursverluste.

MidOcean Credit Partners bietet eine solche Lösung mit der Lumyna MidOcean Absolute Return Credit UCITS-Strategie an – einem liquiden Long/Short-Relative-Value-Ansatz für US-Kredite. Die Strategie zielt auf Fehlbewertungen bei Hochzinsanleihen und verwandten Instrumenten ab, wobei die Renditen eher durch die Auswahl auf Emittentenebene und den relativen Wert als durch die Marktrichtung bestimmt werden. Durch die Kombination von Long-Positionen mit hoher Überzeugung, selektiven Short-Positionen und aktivem Hedging innerhalb eines Rahmens mit kurzer Laufzeit zielt die Strategie darauf ab, Dispersion zu nutzen und konsistente, risikobereinigte Renditen bei kontrollierter Volatilität zu erzielen, was sie zu einer überzeugenden Allokation in der sich wandelnden Landschaft liquider Alternativen von heute macht.

Durch die Fokussierung auf den relativen Wert statt auf die Marktrichtung ist es möglich, in einem volatilen Kreditumfeld ein stabileres Renditeprofil zu erzielen.

Ausblick: Limitierte Richtungstrends aber erhebliche Chance auf Streuung

Das aktuelle Marktumfeld ist geprägt von höheren Risikoprämien sowohl an den Aktien- als auch an den Anleihemärkten sowie von einer geringeren Vorhersehbarkeit hinsichtlich der Gewinne und der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung. Die Zinserwartungen haben sich von einer lockeren Geldpolitik über eine eher neutrale Haltung hin zu einer Straffung bei erhöhten geopolitischen und Inflationsrisiken verschoben.

Die Wirtschaftstätigkeit wird zunehmend von konzentrierten Bereichen wie KI-bezogenen Investitionen und Verteidigungsausgaben angetrieben, was zu einer ungleichmäßigen Wachstumsdynamik führt.

Dies schafft ein Umfeld mit begrenzten klaren Richtungstrends, aber erheblichen Streuungen und Verwerfungen. Infolgedessen finden sich Chancen zunehmend im Bereich des relativen Werts, der Arbitrage und bei Preisineffizienzen und weniger im breiten Markt-Beta.

Aktives Management ist entscheidend, um diese Chancen zu identifizieren und zu nutzen. Unserer Ansicht nach eignen sich liquide alternative Anlagen besonders gut für dieses Umfeld, da sie Diskrepanzen zwischen den Märkten ausnutzen können und gleichzeitig Diversifizierung und Risikokontrolle gewährleisten.

1Quelle: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): The Endowment Model and Modern Portfolio Theory" Dimmock, Wang & Yang, im November 2022 überarbeitet.

2 Es kann nicht garantiert werden, dass die erwartete Wertentwicklung erzielt werden kann oder wird, und bei Anlageentscheidungen sollte man sich nicht ausschließlich auf die erwartete Wertentwicklung verlassen. Die Korrelation basiert auf langfristigen Durchschnittswerten und kann zu einem bestimmten Zeitpunkt höher oder niedriger ausfallen als in den dargestellten Zeiträumen. Bitte beachten Sie die „Wichtigen Hinweise“ am Ende dieses Dokuments.

WICHTIGER HINWEIS

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Weitere Informationen zu den allgemeinen Anlagebedingungen der Fonds, den mit einer solchen Anlage verbundenen Risiken und den Gebühren sowie zu methodischen Einschränkungen finden Sie im Prospekt und in den Dokumenten mit wesentlichen Informationen für den Anleger („KIIDs“/„KIDs“, sofern zutreffend) sowie in der vorvertraglichen Offenlegung der Fonds gemäß SFDR. Die Zusammenfassung der vorvertraglichen Offenlegung gemäß SFDR ist unter https://www.lumyna.com/literature/document-centre/esg verfügbar. Anleger sollten erst dann in die Fonds investieren, wenn sie den aktuellsten Prospekt und das relevante KIID/KID (sofern zutreffend) sowie die neuesten Finanzberichte sorgfältig geprüft haben. Anträge auf Anlage in den Fonds dürfen nur auf der Grundlage des Prospekts, etwaiger KIID/KID und der Zeichnungsunterlagen gestellt werden. Der aktuelle Prospekt, die KIIDs/KIDs sowie die Jahres- und Halbjahresberichte der Fonds sind unter www.lumyna.com verfügbar. Die Fonds sind möglicherweise keine geeigneten Anlagen für Sie, und Sie sollten daher professionelle Anlageberatung einholen, bevor Sie eine Entscheidung über eine Anlage in einen der Fonds treffen. Die Verwaltungsgesellschaft kann beschließen, die für die Vermarktung des Fonds in Ihrem Land getroffenen Vereinbarungen zu kündigen.

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Consent under the Control of Borrowing (Jersey) Order 1958 (the “COBO Order”) has not been obtained for the circulation of this document. Accordingly, the offer that is the subject of this document may only be made in Jersey where the offer is valid in the United Kingdom or Guernsey and is circulated in Jersey only to persons similar to those to whom, and in a manner similar to that in which, it is for the time being circulated in the United Kingdom or Guernsey as the case may be. The Directors may, but are not obliged to, apply for such consent in the future. 

Liechtenstein: 

As at the date of this document, the Fund has not been approved, notified or registered for marketing to investors in Liechtenstein. However, such approval may be sought or such notification or registration may be made in the future. Therefore, this Prospectus may only be transmitted to an investor in a Liechtenstein at such investor’s own initiative. 

Malta: 

As at the date of this document, the Fund has not been approved, notified or registered for marketing to investors in Malta. However, such approval may be sought or such notification or registration may be made in the future. Therefore, this document may only be transmitted to an investor in a Malta at such investor’s own initiative. 

Monaco: 

The Fund may not be offered or sold, directly or indirectly, to investors in Monaco other than by a duly authorised intermediary. Such intermediaries are banks and financial activities companies duly licensed by the “Commission de Contrôle des Activités Financières” (CCAF) by virtue of Law n°1.338 of September 7th, 2007 and authorised under Law n° 1.144 of July 26th, 1991.Otherwise, the Fund may only be offered or sold to: i) institutional investors (pension funds, the government, the sovereign fund, the Prince’s Foundation, banks and insurance companies); ii) companies licensed by the CCAF; iii) investors who have raised enquiries at their own initiative (on cross border and reverse solicitation basis); and iv) existing clients of relevant entities (on a cross border basis). The distribution of this document is restricted accordingly. By accepting this document, recipients warrant that they are fluent in English and expressly waive the possibility of a French translation of this document. Les destinataires du présent document reconnaissent être à même d’en prendre connaissance en langue anglaise et renoncent expressément à une traduction française. 

Peru: 

The Superintendencia del Mercado de Valores (SMV) does not exercise any supervision over this Fund and therefore the management of it. The information the Fund provides to its investors and the other services it provides to them are the sole responsibility of the Administrator. This document is only for the exclusive use of institutional investors in Peru and is not for public distribution. 

San Marino: 

The Fund has not been registered with the Central Bank of San Marino as a foreign collective investment scheme and this Prospectus (or any other agreement, document or material in relation to the Fund) has not been approved by the Central Bank of San Marino pursuant to Law 2005, 17th of November, n. 165 as amended from time to time (the “Law”). Therefore: (i) Unit/Shares may not be advertised, offered or sold; and (ii) the Prospectus or any other offering material, may not be distributed or caused to be distributed to the public in circumstances which could qualify as the marketing of Units/Shares in the Republic of San Marino pursuant to the Law without prior registration of the Fund with the Central Bank of San Marino and all such documentation and marketing material being approved by the Central Bank of San Marino. 

Singapore: 

This material is intended only for institutional investors as defined in the in the Securities and Futures Act (“SFA”).  The Fund is not allowed to be offered to accredited investors or relevant persons as defined in Section 305 of the SFA. This material is part of the Information Memorandum, it is not advertising and has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (“MAS”). 

Thailand: 

The document has not been approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission which takes no responsibility for its contents. Nothing in this document nor any action of the Fund constitutes or shall be construed as an offer for sale of any securities, or a solicitation, by the Fund, to make an offer for sale of any securities to the public in Thailand. This document is intended to be read by the addressee only and must not be passed to, issued to, or shown to the public generally. Remarks: This investment contains risks. An investor should study all information prior to making a decision to invest. 

United States:

US Person (as defined under Regulation S, promulgated under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended) Warning: The Shares/units have not been and will not be registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “1933 Act”), or the securities laws of any of the states of the United States. The Shares/units may not be offered, sold or delivered directly or indirectly in the United States or to or for the account or benefit of any U.S. Person except pursuant to an exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to, the registration requirements of the 1933 Act and any applicable state laws. The Fund has not been and will not be registered in the U.S. There has not been and will not be a public offering of the Shares/units in the United States.   

Uruguay: 

The sale of the units/shares qualifies as a private placement pursuant to section 2 of Uruguayan law 18,627. The units/shares must not be offered or sold to the public in Uruguay, except in circumstances which do not constitute a public offering or distribution under Uruguayan laws and regulations. The units/shares are not and will not be registered with the Financial Services Superintendency of the Central Bank of Uruguay. The units/shares correspond to investment funds that are not investment funds regulated by Uruguayan law 16,774 dated September 27, 1996, as amended. 

Sources (unless otherwise stated): Lumyna Investments Limited 

MSCI: Certain information contained herein (the “Information”) is sourced from/copyright of MSCI Inc., MSCI ESG Research LLC, or their affiliates (“MSCI”), or information providers (together the “MSCI Parties”) and may have been used to calculate scores, signals, or other indicators. The Information is for internal use only and may not be reproduced or disseminated in whole or part without prior written permission. The Information may not be used for, nor does it constitute, an offer to buy or sell, or a promotion or recommendation of, any security, financial instrument or product, trading strategy, or index, nor should it be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance. Some funds may be based on or linked to MSCI indexes, and MSCI may be compensated based on the fund’s assets under management or other measures. MSCI has established an information barrier between index research and certain Information. None of the Information in and of itself can be used to determine which securities to buy or sell or when to buy or sell them. The Information is provided “as is” and the user assumes the entire risk of any use it may make or permit to be made of the Information. No MSCI Party warrants or guarantees the originality, accuracy and/or completeness of the Information and each expressly disclaims all express or implied warranties. No MSCI Party shall have any liability for any errors or omissions in connection with any Information herein, or any liability for any direct, indirect, special, punitive, consequential or any other damages (including lost profits) even if notified of the possibility of such damages.

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