CORONAVIRUS

WHAT ARE THE CONSEQUENCES FOR FINANCIAL MARKETS?

As the virus is turning from a regional health crisis to a global issue, uncertainties about the global economic impact have been rising sharply. Therefore, we would like to keep you updated on the latest developments and share  the views from our boutiques’ Research and Investments experts.

Please see all current publications below, we will keep this page updated with all the latest information.

GENERALI GROUP –
COVID-19 EMERGENCY

Visit the Group`s fully dedicated COVID-19 section that will be constantly updated with outlooks, news and with the actions that
Generali is taking.

(WEEKLY PANDEMIC) MARKET COMMENTARY – MIND THE CURVE

21/06/2020

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The virus is galloping, but less deadly. Covid is spreading like never before, the stats say. 19 June saw 177k new Covid cases, the highest ever.

(WEEKLY PANDEMIC) MARKET COMMENTARY – FINANCIAL REPRESSION AND THE SOVEREIGN CARRY TRADE

15/06/2020

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Chinese data on Monday may vindicate hopes of a V-shape recovery. Yet we warn against extrapolating 1/ an early bounce driven by pent-up demand and 2/ Chinese trends to the broader economy. The ‘swoosh’ scenario for the global economy remains very credible.

THE FED IS IN “WAIT AND SEE” MODE, BUT KEEPS THE DOOR OPEN TO ADDITIONAL MEASURES

10/06/2020

Fed

As widely expected the FOMC does not foresee any rate increase before end-2022, or using Chair Powel words: “We are not thinking about raising rates. We are not even thinking about thinking about raising rates”

(WEEKLY PANDEMIC) MARKET COMMENTARY – FINANCIAL ROTATION IN TEN CHARTS

07/06/2020

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The number of new Covid-19 cases has surged to record highs, as the US improvement sharply lags the European one, while the virus is vivid in selected EM countries.

MARKET UPDATE VIDEO BY VINCENT CHAIGNEAU

03/06/2020

 

The easing of the lockdowns is proceeding slowly but smoothly so far. Or is it? The western world has not suffered another wave of Covid-19 contagion.

(WEEKLY PANDEMIC) MARKET COMMENTARY – THE EMERGING PARADOX

24/05/2020

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The easing of the lockdowns is proceeding slowly but smoothly so far. Or is it? The western world has not suffered another wave of Covid-19 contagion.

COVID-19 FACTS & FIGURES

22/05/2020

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May 21: 107,087 total new cases (+2.1 %), vs 103,468 the previous day and 94,950 5-day average. Now confirmed 5,190,500 cases worldwide (213 countries and territories) vs 4,521,993 cases last week.

COVID-19 FACTS & FIGURES

19/05/2020

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May 18: 88,857 total new cases (+1.9 %), vs 82,257 the previous day and 92,494 5-day average. Now confirmed 4,888,130 cases worldwide (213 countries and territories) vs 4,252,326 cases last week.

FOCAL POINT: THE DEEP ECONOMIC FALLOUT FROM GLOBAL DISTANCING

18/05/2020

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Widespread shutdowns amid the Covid-19 epidemic are set to send the global economy into contraction by at least 4% this year, the deepest recession since WWII. The euro area economy will be hit particularly hard (-8%). The unprecedented slump in activity in the first half of 2020 may be followed by a rebound from H2 onwards.

(WEEKLY PANDEMIC) MARKET COMMENTARY - SWOOSH RECOVERY VS. LIQUIDITY SPLASH

16/05/2020

Coronavirus

While the exit from the lockdown is proceeding cautiously, Covid-19 appears tenacious; the number of new cases globally has slightly picked up over the past week. We go back to history and look at the shape of recessions and recoveries.

COVID-19 FACTS & FIGURES

15/05/2020

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May 14: 96,334 total new cases (+2.2 %), vs 88,215 the previous day and 84,738 5-day average. Now confirmed 4,521,993 cases worldwide (213 countries and territories) vs 3,913,645 cases last week.

COVID-19 FACTS & FIGURES

12/05/2020

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May 11: 74,155 total new cases (+1.8 %), vs 79,869 the previous day and 86,988 5-day average. Now confirmed 4,252,326 cases worldwide (212 countries and territories) vs 3,643,272 cases last week.

(WEEKLY PANDEMIC) MARKET COMMENTARY - EXIT STRATEGY GOES LIVE

10/05/2020

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Now is a key moment in the Covid-19 crisis, as the lockdowns end. Countries that have opened up early have not seen any significant relapse. But the number of new cases globally has picked up, and selected US States are easing up restrictions too early.

THE OIL PRICE PLUNGE WILL RESHAPE THE ENERGY MARKET

08/05/2020

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The temporary drop of the US oil price into negative at the end of April has been the starkest indicator of the stress energy markets are exposed to because of the COVID-related collapse in demand.

COVID-19 FACTS & FIGURES

08/05/2020

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May 7: 96,261 total new cases (+2.5%), vs 92,864 the previous day and 86,459 5-day average. Now confirmed 3,913,645 cases worldwide (212 countries and territories) vs 3,304,232 cases last week.

WEBINAR REPLAY - CREDIT MARKET: THE BRIDGE OVER TROUBLED WATER?

06/05/2020  Webinar with Vivek Tawadey, Head of Global Credit Research at Generali Investments, Antonio Cavarero, Head of Investments at Generali Investments and Simon Thorp, Chief Investment Officer, UK at Aperture LLC

COVID-19 FACTS & FIGURES

05/05/2020

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May 4: 79,580 total new cases (+2.2%), vs 82,341 the previous day and 85,017 5-day average. Now confirmed 3,643,272 cases worldwide (212 countries and territories) vs 3,059,952 cases last week.

COVID-19 FACTS & FIGURES

04/05/2020

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May 3: 82,341 total new cases (+2.4%), vs 82,341 the previous day and 85,432 5-day average. Now confirmed 3,563,692 cases worldwide (212 countries and territories) vs 2,993,275 cases last week.

PETER’S WEEKLY MARKET RECAP

01/05/2020

Peter Kraus, Chairman and CEO, Aperture Investors

It’s been an interesting week, with a number of surprising earnings announcements. Have we seen the bottom of the Covid-19 bear market yet?

RATING AGENCIES SHOW THEIR TEETH

01 May 2020

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More countries are now discussing the exit strategy, i.e. how to progressively ease the lockdown measures. This must be a prudent process, given the risk of a new contagion wave.

WEBINAR REPLAY: DOWN AND UNDER: WHAT IS HAPPENING TO THE OIL INDUSTRY MARKET STRUCTURE?

28 April 2020
with Paolo Scaroni
Deputy Chairman of Rothschild & Co, Chairman of Giuliani, Chairman of AC Milan and former CEO at Eni
 

MARKET PERSPECTIVES: LIMPING OUT OF THE LOCKDOWN

12 April 2020

Water dripping from the tap

As new Covid-19 cases flatten out, governments prepare for the exit from lockdowns. This will ease economic pain. But it is a fragile enterprise, given the risk of resurging infections. 

MACRO VIEW VIDEO: UPDATE ON MARKETS

28/04/2020

with Vincent Chaigneau, Head of Research at Generali Insurance Asset Management*
 

MARKET COMMENTARY - CORONAVIRUS SHOCKWAVE HITS OIL COMPLEX

27/04/2020

Coronavirus shockwave

Despite an ongoing slowdown in the pace of coronavirus contagion, new cases have only reached a plateau. The lockdowns will be followed by a very slow normalization, requiring a heavy dose of social distancing.

COVID-19 FACTS & FIGURES

24/04/2020

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April 23: 91,255 total new cases, vs 80,519 the previous day and 79,450 5-day average. Now confirmed 2,723,056 cases worldwide (210 countries and territories), 82,804 in China and 2,640,252 in the Rest of the World (RoW).

COVID-19 FACTS & FIGURES

23/04/2020

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April 22: 79,933 total new cases, vs 75,278 the previous day and 77,365 5-day average. Now confirmed 2,635,734 cases worldwide (210 countries and territories), 82,798 in China and 2,552,936 in the Rest of the World (RoW).

OIL CONTRACTS TURN NEGATIVE AMID COLLAPSING DEMAND AND STORAGE SHORTAGES

21/04/2020

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In another sign of the unprecedented nature of the COVID crisis, yesterday future prices for WTI oil to be delivered in May dropped to US$-37/bbl. Unlike Brent, contracts on WTI entail a physical delivery at a specific delivery point (Cushing, Oklahoma) of oil to the counterparty.

COVID-19 FACTS & FIGURES

20/04/2020

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April 19: 75,783 total new cases, vs 81,909 the previous day and 84,343 5-day average. Now confirmed 2,406,600 cases worldwide (210 countries and territories), 82,747 in China and 2,323,853 in the Rest of the World (RoW).

PAUSE FOR (SOBERING) THOUGHT

17/04/2020

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Joint Research & Front Office Communication:
It Ain’t Over Till It’s Over. The coronavirus contagion continues to slow, but it is not a straight line to zero. In the two weeks to 10 April, the daily growth in the total number of recorded cases globally had slowed linearly from about 12% to 6%.

COVID-19 FACTS & FIGURES

17/04/2020

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April 16: 99,241 total new cases, vs 84,507 the previous day and 80,361 5-day average. Now confirmed 2,181,681 cases worldwide (210 countries and territories), 82,692 in China and 2,098,989 in the Rest of the World (RoW).

MACRO VIEW VIDEO: UPDATE ON MARKETS

16/04/2020

with Vincent Chaigneau, Head of Research at Generali Insurance Asset Management*
 

COVID-19 FACTS & FIGURES

16/04/2020

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April 15: 84,507 total new cases, vs 73,969 the previous day and 76,706 5-day average. Now confirmed 2,082,440 cases worldwide (210 countries and territories), 82,341 in China and 2,000,099 in the Rest of the World (RoW).

COVID-19 FACTS & FIGURES

10/04/2020

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April 9: 85,659 total new cases, vs 87,028 the previous day and 80,431 5-day average. Now confirmed 1,603,721 cases worldwide (209 countries and territories), 81,907 in China and 1,521,814 in the Rest of the World (RoW).

VIDEO: SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST

09/04/2020Simon Thorpe, Chief Investment Officer UK at Aperture Investors, takes a look at the overall level of the markets – where they are now, where they are likely to go – and the dispersion within markets. Will the Covid-19 crisis highlight the value of active management?

COVID-19 FACTS & FIGURES

07/04/2020

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April 6: 73,135 total new cases, vs 71,384 the previous day and 82,152 5-day average. Now confirmed 1,346,083 cases worldwide (209 countries and territories), 81,740 in China and 1,264,343 in the Rest of the World (RoW).

MACRO VIEW VIDEO: A TEST OF CHARACTER FOR EUROPE

07/04/2020 

A TEST OF CHARACTER FOR EUROPE

06/04/2020

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Down but not out. The contagion of the corona virus continues, but at a slower pace. In the first days of April the total number of recorded cases, now well over one million globally, was rising by about 8.5% a day, vs. 12% around 25 March. …..

INVESTMENT VIEW: SUDDEN STOP, PERMANENT SCARS

06/04/2020

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The coronavirus has caused a sudden stop of the global economy. The recession will be deep; it will hopefully be short-lived, but a V-shape recovery is in doubt, as second-round effects will kick in (depressed capex, weaker consumer confidence etc.). …

COVID-19 FACTS & FIGURES

02/04/2020

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April 2: 79,861 total new cases, vs 76,875 the previous day and 70,400 5-day average. Now confirmed 1,015,182 cases worldwide (197 countries & territories), 81,620 in China and 933,562 in the Rest of the World (RoW)…..

WEBINAR REPLAY: WILL THE COVID-19 AFFECT THE GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPE?

01/04/2020

with Lucio Caracciolo
Professor of Geopolitics and Professional Journalist
 

COVID-19 FACTS & FIGURES

01/04/2020

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March 31: 73,527 total new cases, vs 62,482 the previous day and 65,309 5-day average. Now confirmed 858,446 cases worldwide (195 countries and territories), 81,544 in China and 776,902 in the Rest of the World (RoW)….

COVID-19 FACTS & FIGURES

31/03/2020

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March 30: 62,482 total new cases, vs 59,253 the previous day and 62,769 5-day average. Now confirmed 784,919 cases worldwide (193 countries and territories), 81,518 in China and 703,401 in the Rest of the World (RoW). …

UNPRECEDENTED, OR NOT?

30/03/2020

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Assessing the current market situation amid global pandemic.

A letter to clients by Peter Kraus, Chairman and CEO, Aperture Investors

COVID-19 FACTS & FIGURES

30/03/2020

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March 29: 59,253 total new cases, vs 66,726 the previous day and 59,957 5-day average. Now confirmed 722,437 cases worldwide, 81,439 in China and 640,998 in the Rest of the World (RoW). Overall, 192 countries and territories have reported cases of Covid-19. ….

COVID-19 FACTS & FIGURES

25/03/2020

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US Federal officials reached an agreement for a $2 trillion stimulus package. The package would include a $500bn fund to help hard-hit industries and a comparable amount for direct payments to families,….

ONE MONTH FOR THE HISTORY BOOKS

20/03/2020

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Global equities (MSCI World) have lost 30% since the 19th of February, as the Chinese sanitary crisis morphed into a Global Covid Crisis (GCC). This is the fastest sell-off ever. …

MARKET COMMENTARY: ECB DELIVERS ANOTHER “WHATEVER-IT-TAKES” MOMENT

19/03/2020

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Following the announcement of a bold policy package at the March 12 meeting the ECB intensified its attempts to fight the pandemic fallout and to restore confidence in EMU….

MARKET VIEW VIDEO 2020: VIRAL

13/03/2020

In this video Vincent Chaigneau, Head of Research, takes a look at the impact of Coronavirus on the world economy and markets, possible policy actions and what might just be a silver lining. Find out more!

MARKET COMMENTARY: ECB DELIVERS BOLD MEASURES BUT SEES THE BALL PRIMARILY IN THE FIELD OF FISCAL POLICY

12/03/2020

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The ECB delivered a bold policy package to fight the fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic on euro area activity. As expected the focus was to safeguard credit creation…

MARKET COMMENTARY: COVID-19 CONTAGION, THE LATEST UPDATES

09/03/2020

Italy has just adopted severe containment measures; other countries will inevitably follow. Those measures will eventually help contagion to slow, though near-term they will also add to the drag on the economy …

MARKET COMMENTARY ITALY: DOWNSIDE RISKS TO GROWTH INCREASE

06/03/2020

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The number of COVID-19 cases is increasing but remains concentrated in some parts of Northern Italy. The government has decided further containment measures: …

MARKET COMPASS MARCH 2020

06/03/2020

Antique golden compass

Due to the global spreading of the Covid-19, fears for economic activity increase. The data released this month will provide a first assessment of the damages….

BLOG: CORONAVIRUS & MARKETS

29/02/2020

As the virus continues to spread, Aperture Investors’ CEO Peter Kraus and the managers share their thoughts on the virus’s potential impact on markets and the global economy.

MARKET PERSPECTIVES: VIRAL UNCERTAINTIES

28/02/2020

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With Covid-19 going global, we scale back the previously cautious pro-risk bias in our portfolios.

MARKET COMMENTARY: TRACING THE VIRUS HIT

18/02/2020

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The January meeting brought no changes in either the assessment of the economy or in the policy rate.

MARKET PERSPECTIVES: - (VIR)ALTERATION OF INVESTOR OPTIMISM

31/01/2020

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Just as the trade truce provided broad-based relief, the Coronavirus is unsettling global markets.

FOCAL POINT: THE CORONA VIRUS: WHAT TO EXPECT?

30/01/2020

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The outbreak of the Corona virus (2019-nCoV) is spreading fears around the globe and rattling financial markets.

*Generali Insurance Asset Management S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio is part of Generali Investments multi-boutique platform